Monday, August 21, 2006

Debby does NY?

There have been the doomsayers ever since Katrina hit New Orleans who claim New York is next on the hurricane hit list. It could happen…

Just pay attention. We never really know until the last day, hour where the hurricane is going to hit. Just that slight deviation saved New Orleans from utter destruction.

These weather maps are just out off of NOAA’s site.


wishin said...

Is this like Debbie does Dallas? Just wondering...

Raspootin said...

10:39 central 8/22/06

The initial motion estimate is 295/16. Although the global models
are in reasonable agreement and tightly clustered through 48-72h...
the model consensus has shifted well to the west or left of the
previous track...due in part to the continued westward shift of
the GFS...GFS ensemble...and GFDL models. The BAM models have been
atrocious at best with a large right-of-track bias over the past 36 they were not even considered in the forecast process.
The GFS and GFDL models appear to have been overdeveloping a weak
mid- to upper-level low located about 550 nmi northwest of Debby.
This feature is so indistinct and much smaller than the circulation
envelope of Debby that it is hard to locate in water vapor imagery.
In contrast...the NOGAPS and UKMET models have been downplaying the
upper-low and dissipate it completely by 48 hours. Given that the
upper-low at best is moving westward at the same speed as Debby...
any northward influence by this system on Debby should be less than
depicted by the GFS and GFDL models. The official forecast track
was shifted westward...but not as far west as the GUNA...GUNS...and
CONU consensus models. As mentioned in last night's discussion...
if Debby doesn't reach 20-25n latitude in 72-96 hours...then a
shortwave trough and forecast weakness in the subtropical ridge
will bypass the alluded to by the 18z UKMET model run.

wishin said...